You could argue that UBM has done a lot of things right. It has invested judiciouslyin some online,it has reduced its dependence on print and has a substantial events business. Even so, Operating profit from print magazines dropped 77.9 per cent in the first of half to £3.3m, profit from events dropped 12.7 per cent to £37.8m and profit from data, services and online dropped 43.6 per cent to £16m.
According to Press Gazette, CEO David Levin thinks the world is over published and has already culled fifteen titles this year. More to come no doubt.
Oddly Levin claims that forward bookings for shows are up 5.9% but there is certainly a timing issue here. IN downturns, show sales teams get better on onsite contracting, but late sales all but dry up. It is not necessarily the case that good forward bookings now will lead to improved final bookings at show time.
This year has seen a drop in attendee revenues of 39% for UBM. I am hearing from many people that selling tables at awards evenings (another version of attendee pay events) is like selling hog roast at a Bahmitzvah. The recssion is long from over.
There is a growing realisation amongst b2b houses that sitting tight and waiting for the upturn won't cut it. What is not yet clear is whether they have yet calulated the vision for the business after the apocalypse.
Meanwhile following the collapse of the RBI sale, Reed Elsevier is raising cash through a placement. This will reduce debt but also be dilutive for shareholders. Mor importantly, with much of the Reed Elsevier business market leading and high priced, and the remainder in the same mess as the rest of them (RBI) it is not yet clear what Reed can do to provide the next generation growth. Reeds share price went backwards on news of the placing and has not really gone anywhere in some years. Its a blue chip stock. Reed Elsevier has less to worry about than many (it has manageable debt, lots of profit and stable revenues from information) but its challenge is that it won't grow fast when or if the recovery comes. So for different reasons, Reed has the same challenges as every other business media company.
The Independent business diary speculates that UBM CEO, David Levin is being spoken of as the possible successor to Reed Elsevier CEO Crispin Davies, who is to retire shortly. The source for this story is "gossip merchants". It must be true then.
His qualification for the role, according the Independent, is that he failed to merge with Informa, and that he is talented and ambitious. On that basis, I reckon I could be in the running too.
United Business Media has begun to wrestle with the challenges of CMP. This was acquired from the Leedes family at the height of the tech boom in the last century. It has been in trouble almost ever since. The recovery in the tech market has helped the business make progress in the last couple of years. The latest wheeze is to divide the entrerprise into four bits, the old publishing bit, http://www.techweb.com/, a business devoted to the channels sector http://www.everythingchannel.com/, a business devoted to the electronics sector http://www.techinsights.com/, and a workflow businesss http://www.think-services.com/.
This dressed up as a big announcement but is little more than an internal reorganisation. Interestingly David LEvin is taking the direct reports of each of the section CEO's implying a high level of high level interference and meddling, something for which Levin is oft accused by those who have worked with him
UBM are a bit like Honda. When Honda wanted to crack the Indian market they decided to break in not with their latest products but with an old version of their 50cc motorcycle. If the economy is new, give them them old products until it is sophisticated enough and wealthy enough to afford the new.
David Levin, the UBM CEO is using his PR Newswire brand and his events business model to break into both China and India. He may be doing some online too, but the clear thrust of his interview with Livemint is that the old model is the main core of activity. Levin is known for being clever and he went to business school, so he will have read the Honda case study. Hard to fault the approach I suppose.
Thinking though that the future of business media might be something to do with digital I was struck by this quote;
"We build professional communities through 258 (trade) shows, 225 trade magazines and 300-400 websites catering to different niches." It just seemed a bit strange for the CEO to know to the precise unit the number of trade shows and magazines that he owns, but to only be able to guess the number of websites with a 33% uncertainty. If digital was at the heart of UBM strategy as you might sometimes think if you read all the hyperbole about Searchmedica, you'd think he'd know wouldn't you?
Business to business commentary for a 21st century media world. Analysis of business magazines and business media, the impact of search, the web and the digital economy.
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