In spirit of fairness, Tim Weller claims, "Totally stiched up by STimes, I should know bettern I never said "I am pleased to be shot of Private Equity" I said very happy with new deal" on a Tweet yesterday.
Those who eat with the devil should use long spoons
The general rise in business confidence filled the pages of the Sunday newspapers business sections at the weekend. Share prices have risen in the last few weeks reflecting a growing mood that the worst is over. This is no time for media owners to breath a sigh of relief however.
Even if we accept that this is the bottom of the cycle, it will be at least a year before there is any recovery in the recruitment market. If display advertising recovers at all it will be slow and never to the levels we have previously seen. The demand for online solutions has not gone away and the the revenue models for thes businesses is for most media companies unproven, and even when it is proven its scale will be smaller than the old print model.
Incisive's Tim Weller was speculating at the FIPP conference that the days of the controlled circulation model are numbered, Rupert Murdoch has postulated that his business will move to paid content model (It is often unwise to bet against Murdoch - but surely this hope over experience) Thomson Reuters are veeling confident in their future, and the events model for the likes of UBM is not yet a busted flush and Reeds high value infomation model is dull but solid. But let nobody think that all is well.
Check you business out against these simple questions, 1) Does your business have a lot of debt? 2) Does your business rely on print advertising for more than 30% of its revenue? 3) Is your online revenue less than 25% of your total revenue? 4) Is your total revenue/employee less than £100k/year 5) Do you have the same proportion of your turnover as overhead as you had last year?
If you answer yes to all more than three questions then there is considerable pain yet to be felt.
Incisive Media has got into a very public spat with the pensions regulator. According to a statement by CEO Tim Weller, a junior journalist was threatened with jail, by phone, unless she revealed her sources for the story.
The original story is here. My understanding is that the facts of the story are not disputed. The pensions regulator argues that "restricted information" has been misused.
In his robust defence of the journalist, Weller says, "The right of journalists to protect their sources is vital if the media is to be able to do its job properly," Here, here.
I am in no position to argue the point of law. But here are my thoughts. The right of a journalist to protect sources is not absolute. A matter of national security for example might lead both morally and legally to a journalist revealing a source. So we cannot defend the journalist simply by getting on our high horse. The question we must answer is a moral and legal one. In this particular circumstance is it right for the journalist to protect her source? First, is the public interest served by the publication of the story? Second, does publication compromise the possible future prosection of a criminal offence?
The regulator relies on the Pensions Act 2004 in which clause 72 states,
"The Regulator may, by notice in writing, require any person to whom subsection (2) applies to produce any document, or provide any other information,"
The Act also prohibits the release of "restricted information". I cannot offer a legal opinion, but it seems to me that if any offence has been committed, it is by the person who has released the information - not the journalist - and in any event it would have to be demonstrated that the information was "restricted" and that the release of the source by the journalist was in the public interest.
Second, the clause allowing the regulator to demand documents etc, appears in the legislation in the section about investigation of premises and so on. It seems clear that the intent of the law was to enable the regulator to demand access to documents held by pension companies it was investigating, not journalists to whom information about an investigation may have been leaked.
In any event, the core facts of the matter are readily ascertainable from the public record for as the original story says, "The company no longer appears on the regulator’s approved panel of independent trustee firms listed on its website."
In other words, the action taken by the regulator is visible to all. The matter at dispute is the access the journalist appears to have had to "restricted documents".
Morally and in my worthless opinion, Weller is right. On this occasion, the journalist ought to be able to protect her source.
There is precedent. Many years ago a trainee journalist at what was then Morgan Grampian ended up in court to prtoect a source, and lost being fined £5000, and in a case between Elton John and The Express in 1990, Lord Justice Wolf said in his summary;
"When orders were to be made requiring journalists to depart from their normal professional standards of confidentiality for their sources, the merits of their doing so in the public interest had to be clearly demonstrated. The minimum requirement was that other avenues to find the source had been explored". In the Elton John case the court again ruled that the source should be revealed, for reasons not relevant to this case.
It seems to me, that at this early point in the Incisive example, de minimus, it is for the pension regulator to demonstrate that it has made efforts to trace the source by other means, and that identification of the source is in the public interest. The publisher should stand firm.
One of our readers asks me to mention this and as the programme looks relevant and timely (even though yours truly isn't on the speaker rosta) I am happy to oblige; "It's the annual conference of the Specialised Information Publishers Association (SIPA) at the Tower Hotel, London E1 on 8-9 July.
Keynote speakers include Tim Weller, CEO of Incisive Media talking on 'narrow and deep' publishing; David Worlock of Outsell Inc, on the state of the industry and the future for paid content; and Mark Ragan from Ragan Communications in the US on taking his products from print to online.
So that will be Tim saying business media is great, David saying its all about workflow and I have no idea who Mark Ragan is. Still it looks like fun. Lots of workshops and interactive stuff and interesting if only to see which of the speakers really understands just what is going on.
Weller says some of the stuff that everyone says - we must do online and print and events; but what is interesting is his level of detailed grasp of what needs to be done with the business. Weller rightly argues that magazines have to change to survive in the online world. They need to be more like The Economist he says, which has thrived in an online world because of its thoughtful and analytical approach.
He rightly argues against what he calls brochure ware in web sites - lazy and pointless papering of the web with ill thought through content - and is honest enough to admit that some of his sites are not very good. He advocates muliple models to make online work - not just selling ads - which is really hard to do in b2b, but also lead gen, recruitment, search, data and workflow.
If we were being critical we might say that doing everything isn't a strategy. Real strategy is about deciding what you don't do. However in a world were the certainties of the business model of the past have unravelled, I'd rather back a plan which was too innovative than one which was hoping it will all turn out all right in the end. Too many business media execs are running on the spot. and hoping for Jam tomorrow. Wellers enterprise may struggle (he has far too much print product in my view) but he will do better than most of his rivals if only because he is running forwards.
Business publishers are normally very cautious about talking themselves into a recession so it is interesting to hear the CEOs at the PPA conference acknowledging that things are getting tough. Tim Weller says we have to get our heads out of the sand -it's going to be tough he says. William Reeds Charles Reed is bleating that online recruitment is tough too, which is surprising given their strength in that sector. CMP complained that the building sector was tough and so is recruitment.
David Gilbertson says magazines aren't dead. Just resting perhaps. Magazines may not be dead, but they are not growth businesses and will not drive shareholder value growth says I.
So, in a an uncharacteristic agreement with Weller, there is still time to get the heads out of the sand - but not much. Every day of dithering means that advertisers are losing the habit of doing business with business media houses. Recruitment revenues are being stolen by the job boards and the recruitment and selection agencies.
So, a question for Charles Reed - if recuitment is falling in print, and you are struggling to make it work in online - what are you going to do?
It's too late to mind the shop and hope the customers will come back, we need a new innovative approach to business media. Without it, when Bernard Gray of TES says that the elephant in the room is the sale of RBI, we will soon be saying that the dinosaur on the plain is all the old behemoths of business media.
Business to business commentary for a 21st century media world. Analysis of business magazines and business media, the impact of search, the web and the digital economy.